000 FXUS66 KSEW 060249 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 749 PM PDT Wed Oct 5 2022 .UPDATE...Mainly clear across the area this evening with low stratus along the coast. Stratus will spread inland tonight into Thursday morning with patchy fog possible. Clouds will clear quicker on Thursday for dry, mostly sunny conditions later in the afternoon and evening. && .SYNOPSIS...An upper ridge will be over the area through the weekend for warm, dry weather. An upper low may bring precipitation potential and cooler temperatures early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...Still some lingering marine stratus in the East and South Sound areas as well as along the coast, otherwise the remainder of W WA has cleared up for the most part. Inherited forecast remains on track as temps throughout the area are in the 60s...although some just barely. Another weaker push is expected tonight, but with the change over to offshore flow expected tomorrow, both easterly extent and duration will be limited. On the larger scale, the upper level ridge will retrograde and rebuild over WA on Thursday. The combination of this ridge and the easterly flow will make for warmer conditions. Highs Thursday will be in the 60s at the beaches and 70s inland with a few low 80s in the interior. The ridge axis retrogrades farther west and offshore on Friday before gradually diminishing throughout the day Saturday. This will still be enough to keep dry and unusually warm weather in the short term forecast. Highs for both days will generally run in the mid to upper 70s for the interior lowlands with mid 60s to near 70 for along the coast and near water. 18 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Sunday will continue this warm and dry trend for one more day as the ridge breaks down further. Deterministic models finally in agreement in bringing a system in for the start of next week, although details are still not in line...the GFS opting for a Monday passing while the ECMWF is leaning more toward a late Monday/early Tuesday event. Ensemble members seem to be voting for the earlier timing but a high degree of uncertainty is present in most members both on said timing as well as if the area will see any precip at all. Current forecast retains slight chance wording until a clearer picture can emerge. Dry conditions return Wednesday. Sunday will see temps more in line with Friday and Saturday, while if the incoming early week system brings nothing else, it will bring more seasonable temperatures. Highs Monday will fall into the mid to upper 60s while Tuesday will only be a couple of degrees above seasonal normals with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Temps get a little bit of a bump on Wednesday with highs very close to what is expected Monday. 18 && .AVIATION...West to southwest flow aloft, with north winds turning to light northeasterlies later this evening. Low clouds and fog are expected to develop once again tonight into Thursday morning, but will clear out much quicker than previous days, and will be less widespread due to drier air. Likely IFR/LIFR conditions once again for inland terminals through the morning, clearing out by early afternoon. KSEA...FEW to SCT clouds around 1500 feet this evening. Northerly winds will transition to light northeasterlies tonight and into Thursday morning. Low clouds and fog developing near the terminal once again Thursday morning, but will scatter out earlier than previous days, likely around 18-19z. VFR conditions will then return with just some high passing clouds overhead. Mazurkiewicz/Kristell && .MARINE...Ridging will amplify in the next couple of days, which will increase N/NE winds over Puget Sound and over the Coastal Waters, but will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. As we look ahead into the beginning of next week, there are some indicators of a stronger weather system crossing into the coastal waters. There is disagreement between model consensus on the timing of this weather system, so at this time confidence is low. Regardless, if this weather system holds up, we could see potential for some headlines in our coastal waters, within Small Craft Advisory levels (possibly even higher). Seas generally around 3 to 5 feet throughout the rest of this week. With the aforementioned weather system potentially crossing into our region early next week, could possibly see seas building up to at least 7 to 10 feet. Mazurkiewicz/Kristell && .HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warm conditions will remain in place over the entire forecast period. While RH recoveries in the lowlands will be good to moderate, there are some concerns about mid-slope RH recoveries throughout the period. Easterly winds Thursday and into this weekend may hinder recoveries even further. While no widespread critical fire weather thresholds are expected to be met throughout the forecast period, will need to keep an eye on wind forecasts as new models come in. There are some hints at getting close to Red Flag criteria for Thursday although current forecast keeps speeds below criteria. Additionally, regardless of wind, the aforementioned RH issues may allow for more active fire activity, even at night, for active incidents within the CWA. 18 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion
