752
FXUS66 KSEW 250953
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
253 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will continue to bring widespread precipitation and
breezy conditions to Western Washington today. Unsettled conditions
are favored into next week. Light showers will linger early next
week. Another system will arrive midweek, bringing widespread rain,
mountain snow, and cooler temperatures to the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain continues to move across Western Washington early this
morning as a low pressure system moves southward offshore.
Latest radar imagery shows pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall
moving across the region. The bulk of the precipitation will
fall over the coast and the Olympic Peninsula with 1.00-1.50
inches. Other locations will see amounts ranging 0.10-0.20
inches east of I-5 and 0.25-0.50 inches west of I-5. Southerly
winds are expected to become breezy along the coast, San Juan
Islands, and the Olympic Peninsula this morning and ease late
tonight. Latest high-res guidance suggests wind gusts up to 35
mph. High temperatures in the low to mid 50s today.
Models have come to a better agreement on the projected path of the
low. The center of the low will remain offshore today and move
inland Monday morning near the Oregon/Washington border. This will
result in light showers lingering into Monday. A weak shortwave
will slide down from British Columbia on Tuesday for another
chance of light precipitation.
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&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is good agreement among models that a low pressure system will
slide down from the British Columbia coast late Tuesday towards
Western Washington, bringing another round of widespread
precipitation through at least Thursday. Additionally, a colder
air mass will accompany this system. Latest guidance suggests
high temperatures will only peak into the upper 40s to low 50s
and overnight temperatures will dip into the 30s, with upper 20s
possible in the valleys by Thursday. Snow levels will also
decrease below 3500 ft with this system, bringing light snow
accumulations to the passes. Latest guidance suggests the passes
may receive around 4 inches of snow, while the higher mountain
peaks may see around 7 inches. Models start to struggle Saturday
on the upper-level pattern. Some members have a weak ridge
building behind the low pressure system, however the majority of
members at this time favor an upper-level trough to remain over
Western Washington.
29
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwest flow aloft will become southerly later today then
southeasterly overnight as an upper low offshore moves onshore over
northwest Oregon. Ceilings will be a mixed bag across the region
today as bands of precipitation associated with the system offshore
spread into the region. MVFR ceilings will be mostly confined to the
coastal areas with primarily VFR for interior terminals. Ceilings
may briefly drop to MVFR thresholds for interior areas mainly south
of KSEA this morning.
KSEA...Mainly lower end VFR expected today with periods of light
rain moving through the area into this afternoon. Precipitation
should begin to decrease toward this evening. Surface winds E/NE 4
to 7 knots.
27
&&
.MARINE...
A gradually weakening surface low will shift southward over the
offshore waters today before moving onshore over the northern Oregon
coast on Monday morning. Small craft advisories remain in effect for
a combination of wind and seas over the coastal waters into this
evening. Small craft advisories also remain in effect for easterlies
in the strait. Winds and seas will be ease and subside tonight as
the low offshore further weakens and moves ashore over Oregon.
Another front will reach the waters on Wednesday.
27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Grays
Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion
Discussion Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO Script by SE Lincoln Weather
